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In August 2022, Death Valley, the driest place in North America, experienced record flooding from summertime rainfall associated with the North American monsoon (NAM). Given the socioeconomic cost of these type of events, there is a dire need to understand their drivers and future statistics. Existing theory predicts that increases in the intensity of precipitation is a robust response to anthropogenic warming. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that northeast Pacific (NEP) sea surface temperature (SST) variability could further intensify summertime NAM rainfall over the desert southwest. Drawing on this paleoclimatic evidence, we use historical observations and reanalyzes to test the hypothesis that warm SSTs on the southern California margin are linked to more frequent extreme precipitation events in the NAM domain. We find that summers with above-average coastal SSTs are more favorable to moist convection in the northern edge of the NAM domain (southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, and the southern Great Basin). This is because warmer SSTs drive circulation changes that increase moisture flux into the desert southwest, driving more frequent precipitation extremes and increases in seasonal rainfall totals. These results, which are robust across observational products, establish a linkage between marine and terrestrial extremes, since summers with anomalously warm SSTs on the California margin have been linked to seasonal or multi-year NEP marine heatwaves. However, current generation earth system models (ESMs) struggle to reproduce the observed relationship between coastal SSTs and NAM precipitation. Across models, there is a strong negative relationship between the magnitude of an ESM’s warm SST bias on the California margin and its skill at reproducing the correlation with desert southwest rainfall. Given persistent NEP SST biases in ESMs, our results suggest that efforts to improve representation of climatological SSTs are crucial for accurately predicting future changes in hydroclimate extremes in the desert southwest.

 

Several modes of tropical sea‐surface temperature (SST) variability operate on year‐to‐year (interannual) timescales and profoundly shape seasonal precipitation patterns across adjacent landmasses. Substantial uncertainty remains in addressing how SST variability will become altered under sustained greenhouse warming. Paleoceanographic estimates of changes in variability under past climatic states have emerged as a powerful method to clarify the sensitivity of interannual variability to climate forcing. Several approaches have been developed to investigate interannual SST variability within and beyond the observational period, primarily using marine calcifiers that afford subannual‐resolution sampling plans. Amongst these approaches, geochemical variations in coral skeletons are particularly attractive for their near‐monthly, continuous sampling resolution, and capacity to focus on SST anomalies after removing an annual cycle calculated over many years (represented as geochemical oscillations). Here we briefly review the paleoceanographic pursuit of interannual variability. We additionally highlight recent research documented by Ong et al., (2022,https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004483) who demonstrate the utility of Sr/Ca variations in capturing SST variability using a difficult‐to‐sample meandroid coral species,Colpophyllia natans, which is widespread across the Caribbean region and can be used to generate records spanning multiple centuries.

 

Subsurface mixing of seawater and terrestrial-borne meteoric waters on carbonate landscapes creates karst subterranean estuaries, an area of the coastal aquifer with poorly understood carbon cycling, ecosystem functioning, and impact on submarine groundwater discharge. Caves in karst platforms facilitate water and material exchange between the marine and terrestrial environments, and their internal sedimentation patterns document long-term environmental change. Sediment records from a flooded coastal cave in Cozumel Island (Mexico) document decreasing terrestrial organic matter (OM) deposition within the karst subterranean estuary over the last ∼1,000 years, with older sediment likely exported out of the cave by intense storm events. While stable carbon isotopic values (δ 13 C org ranging from −22.5 to −27.1‰) and C:N ratios (ranging from 9.9 to 18.9) indicate that mangrove and other terrestrial detritus surrounding an inland sinkhole are the primarily sedimentary OM supply, an upcore decrease in bulk OM and enrichment of δ 13 C org values are observed. These patterns suggest that a reduction in the local mangrove habitat decreased the terrestrial particulate OM input to the cave over time. The benthic foraminiferal community in basal core sediment have higher proportions of infaunal taxa (i.e., Bolivina ) and Ammonia , and assemblages shift to increased miliolids and less infaunal taxa at the core-top sediment. The combined results suggest that a decrease in terrestrial OM through time had a concomitant impact on benthic meiofaunal habitats, potentially by impacting dissolved oxygen availability at the microhabitat scale or resource partitioning by foraminifera. The evidence presented here indicates that landscape and watershed level changes can impact ecosystem functioning within adjacent subterranean estuaries.